China is projected to overtake the United States in hi-tech and advanced military manufacturing by 2035, according to prominent Chinese strategist Lu Yongxiang. In a commentary published in the Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering, Lu, former vice-chairman of the National People’s Congress, highlights the irreversible decline of US manufacturing competitiveness and estimates that ‘Made in China’ will become the global leader within a decade.

Lu, a respected mechanical engineer who has significantly influenced China’s long-term development strategies, predicts that China’s economy will surpass America’s by 2035, ushering in a new global era. Although the US has historically led in hi-tech and advanced military equipment production, China has rapidly narrowed the gap through initiatives like the ‘Made in China 2025’ program.

Despite efforts by the US and its allies to restrain China’s development through measures such as trade tariffs, semiconductor export controls, and protectionist policies, most of the goals outlined in the ‘Made in China 2025’ plan have already been achieved. As a result, high-end industries like shipbuilding, electric vehicles, drones, renewable energy, and industrial robots have experienced unprecedented growth, outpacing competitors in the US and other developed countries.

In 2023, China’s manufacturing output is expected to grow by 4.3%, further solidifying the nation’s role as a global manufacturing powerhouse. With Chinese shipyards securing orders for over 1,500 large ships worldwide, compared to just five for the US, China now contributes approximately one-third of the total global manufacturing output, nearly double that of the US. As China continues to advance its manufacturing capabilities and expand its economic influence, the realization of Lu Yongxiang’s predictions appears increasingly likely.